Pakistan: Exploding population Bomb!
In the eighteenth century, Malthus gave his famous theory in which he specifically stated that the human population increases geometrically, while food production increases arithmetically. Under this paradigm, humans would eventually be unable to produce enough food to sustain themselves. Although we have seen that Malthus's law has lost its consistency but it may not be true literally but it is true that the rapidly increasing population around the world has increased the pressure on resources, especially in the case of food items. But on the one hand, some developed countries of the world have succeeded in stabilizing their population, but in third world countries especially in Africa and some countries of Asia, this situation is continuously deteriorating. Pakistan is one of these countries. in 1950 Pakistan had a population of 3.3 crores and it was the 14th most populous country in the world at that time. Whereas today its population has increased to more than 21 crores and it has jumped a number of places to take the fifth place in the world in terms of population. While its resources are incapable of bearing the burden of its growing population. For example, where Pakistan is at the fifth position in terms of population, but if it is seen from the perspective of land area, then Pakistan is ranked 34th in the world and holds only 0.6 percent of the total land area of the world. The worst part of this situation is yet to come. The population growth rate of Pakistan is around 1.90%. If the country's population keeps increasing at the same rate (1.90%), it is likely to double in the next 37 years, making Pakistan the third most populous country in the world.Today, Pakistan faces many threats such as increasing international debt and liabilities, the frequent spread of fundamentalism, regionalism, sectarianism, terrorism, corruption, political instability. But the population explosion increasing the intensity of many of these problems like law and order situation, rising prices due to lack of adequate supply of food is going to become the biggest crisis of stability and development of Pakistan.
Why is Pakistan on the verge of a population explosion?
The most important factor for high population growth in Pakistan is the conservative thinking prevailing among the general public, which feels uncomfortable to accept new ideas. And because of this, low contraceptive prevalence rates in Pakistan (which have fallen to 30 percent), marriages at a young age (which allows more time for producing more offspring) are important. Since Islam is the national religion of Pakistan and it controls the beliefs of the public to a large extent and according to this it is wrong to participate in family planning strategies. Hence married women are expected to produce more and more children during their childbearing age. As a result, 70 percent of them do not use any birth control method. Today in Pakistan there are 3.1 children in each family on average. This is a major factor for the growing population in Pakistan. Apart from this, due to the preference of the son, poverty, illiteracy, especially lack of women education and women empowerment, traditional beliefs, customs, etc., boost the population growth.
Along with this, one of the major factors responsible for high population growth in Pakistan is high fertility which is a major factor of population growth. Both high birth rates and low death rates contribute to Pakistan's population growth. At 27.7 births per 1,000 people, the birth rate in Pakistan is the highest in the world outside of Africa. In comparison, Pakistan's death rate is 7.228 per 1,000. This vast difference between the number of people born and the deaths has further increased the ever-increasing population. Poverty is one of the major reasons for population growth. In Pakistan, the poverty rate is around 39 percent, which has increased by about 60 percent since the 1998 census. The desire to increase the number of more working hands is also an important factor in population growth.
Effects of Population Growth!
Pakistan, as stated earlier, in terms of area and especially when more than half of it is devoid of fertility, in such a situation, the ever-increasing population is increasing the pressure on resources even more. And its destructive results can be seen in the coming years. As a result of the high birth rate, 60 percent of the population of Pakistan is still under 30 years of age. This has dangerous consequences because more resources are needed to raise more children. About 39 percent belong to families living in poverty. In such a situation, raising so many children is a difficult task. Along with this, it is becoming a lot of pressure on the education system. Pakistan's governmental educational undertaking are unable to teach such a large amount of children, and one of the consequences of this is that a large section of the lower-income group is more oriented towards the madrassas run by Islamic fundamentalists, from where possibilities of being got ordination in terrorism are very strong. With this, we see that there is a direct relationship between demographics and security. Historically, population growth has been one of the most volatile factors in the least developed countries. It is a recognized fact that young people are generally more sensitive to extreme behavior. A study conducted by Population Action International shows that since the 1970s, about 80% of the world's civil conflicts have taken place in countries where the young population is growing rapidly.
The increasing population is a major factor in food insecurity. About 60 percent of Pakistanis are already living with food insecurity. If the population continues to increase, in such a situation agricultural land will be used for residential purposes on a large scale. According to some reports, urbanization in Pakistan is growing at an annual rate of 3%, which is the highest growth rate in South Asia. The United Nations Population Division estimates that by 2025, about half of the country's population will live in urban areas. And in a situation where there will be heavy congestion in urban areas, on the other hand, it will reduce agricultural production, which will make resources even more scarce and expensive. As a result of the current food insecurity, already malnutrition and stunted growth remain a problem that is constantly increasing with time.
This population growth is already creating a deep crisis for this country faced with water scarcity. It is noteworthy that 274 million acre-feet of water will be required for this population by 2025, but it is estimated that only 191 million acre-feet of water will be available for use. This means that the people of Pakistan will be forced to live in water for about one-third less than they need.
According to an estimate, about 32% of the younger generation of Pakistan is illiterate, while a large number are school dropouts at an early age. The enrollment rate in schools here is the lowest in South Asia. Pakistan spends only 2% of the GDP on education, and the quality of this education is also doubtful. And in such a situation when the development of human resources is badly affected, it becomes almost impossible to use demographic dividend. And while this is detrimental to another economic development, the presence of parallel "industries" such as terrorism remains a major threat not only to Pakistan but to global peace which is likely to grow further.
According to an estimate by the State Bank of Pakistan, 1.8 million people enter the job market in Pakistan every year. For their absorption in the workforce, Pakistan needs an annual economic growth rate of at least 6 to 7%. As of 2018, 3.8 million people in the country were unemployed. After the economic shutdown due to coronavirus, this figure is likely to increase manifold. But due to the hampered economic development of Pakistan and the effects of Corona, it seems almost impossible to achieve development at this rate.
Today, Pakistan is facing a serious situation and population growth is making this problem more severe. Pakistan faces a formidable challenge of tackling the issues of economic development and poverty reduction. But not getting any success in all of this. Pakistan ranks 154th among 189 countries in the world in terms of the Human Development Index. Which clearly indicates that even though Pakistan can show economic growth by juggling data, it has lagged behind in economic development? And the increasing population continues to make the crisis worse before its existence.