Pandemic’s push into poverty in Pakistan

While the disaster of Covid-19 is continuously increasing, on the other hand, the Government of Pakistan and its Prime Ministers are in a state of complacency and are praising themselves for achieving so-called liberation from the crisis of Corona in Pakistan. Whereas the reality is that the situation is getting worse from the bad. According to a new UN impact assessment, coordinated by United Nations Development Program (UNDP), finds that soaring COVID-19 rates risk overwhelming Pakistan’s health care system, slashing growth, derailing the financial recovery, and pushing the country further into poverty. Pakistan’s confirmed and reported COVID-19 cases, as of 17 July, topped 2, 61,169 and more than 5,505 people have died, including at least four provincial legislators. Pakistan is the fifth most populous country in the world, with very densely populated urban centers where contagion spreads far and fast. This virus, alongside measures to mitigate it, poses major risks to lives and livelihoods with impacts that could last for decades, the study says. Pakistan’s Public health systems were stretched long before the pandemic, with a ratio of one doctor to 963 people and one hospital bed to 1,608 people. Its shortage of trained medical staff is estimated at 200,000 doctors and 1.4 million nurses, and universal health coverage is totally nonexistent.

While the poverty rate declined by 40 percent over the last two decades to 24.3 percent in 2015, the IMF projects a sharp reversal in this, with up to 40 percent of Pakistanis living below the poverty line in COVID-19’s viral wake. Pakistan’s real GDP growth is expected to slow by 3 percent, with downturns in services and manufacturing. Agriculture will also lag if lockdowns continue and disrupt needed transportation, logistical support, labor, and access to inputs for the next planting season. Those most at risk include people already living below the poverty line, women, children, people with disabilities, the elderly, and other marginalized groups whose lives, livelihoods, nutrition, and access to basic services are least secure. It also has large-scale social disadvantages. Nearly 42 million children are now out of school, while 17 million children under five are missing routine vaccinations. An additional 2.45 million people beyond an existing 40 million now suffer food insecurity, the study finds.

According to authorized Data by Pakistan government's annual Economic Survey for 2019 to 2020 also warned that the economy would contract for the first time in 68 years. At least 10 million more Pakistani citizens will drop below the poverty line because of the toll of the Covid-19 pandemic, the government's new economic survey estimates.

Around one in four Pakistani citizens are currently too poor to meet basic needs, but that figure is predicted to rise closer to 30 percent of the world's sixth most populous nation. The Covid-19 outbreak “is expected to have a negative impact on Pakistan's economy, and the number of people living below the poverty line may rise from the existing figure of 50 to 60 million,” the survey says. There is also a different forecast which stated that at least 3 million people will lose their jobs - 1 million in the industrial sector and 2 million in services. The documents noted that the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, an autonomous research organization set up by the government, has projected job losses that could reach 18 million. They also stated that exports are likely to fall by $2.8 billion to $3.8 billion, with a negative impact on remittances from the Middle East, the United States and Europe, which are likely to remain around $20 billion to $21 billion against $21.8 billion in 2019. In mid-May Moody's placed Pakistan’s local and foreign currency long-term issuer B3 ratings under review for downgrade, citing a potential default on private sector debt.

The figures which the Government of Pakistan is using to proclaim its victory against Corona are completely fabricated. Health experts cite a significant decrease in the number of tests as one of the reasons behind dwindling new COVID-19 cases. Contrary to the doctors’ advice, the number of average coronavirus tests have dropped from 28,000 per day to below 24,500 in the past few weeks, even though the government claims to have enhanced testing capacity to 32,000.

However much Imran Khan may make false claims, the ground reality cannot be hidden. In a virtual meeting of the third regional session of the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) on Covid-19 and food security, Pakistan’s Minister for National Food Security and Research Fakhar Imam confessed that Pakistan has faced numerous challenges in the past and now Covid-19 has severely impacted the economy besides increasing the need for food security.