Diamer-Bhasha: Dam or doom!

 

 

The proposed Diamer-Bhasha dam, 320 kilometers from the border with China in the north. At 272 meters high, it would be the highest roller compacted concrete dam in the world and would provide power generation, water storage, and flood control. The dams proposed capacity 6.4MAF (million-acre feet) of water which would irrigate at least 1.2 million acres of the agricultural area in Pakistan. The hydroelectric power project would generate 4,500 MW electricity and along with boosting the ailing cement and steel industry sectors of Pakistan.

 

 

With a dwindling economy, Pakistan knocked on the doors to door to institutions like the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and even Western allies, seeking financial help. All refused to finance the project, due to the strong opposition of India – because the dam site is located in the occupied territory of erstwhile Jammu Kashmir. But in June 2018, Pakistan’s chief justice ordered a crowdfunding campaign be started to build the Diamer-Bhasha dam. In May this year, Pakistan awarded the contract for building the dam to a joint venture of Power Construction Corporation of China and the Frontier Works Organization of Pakistan. It is now clear that the contract was awarded once China had agreed to lend money for the project. In may 2020 China’s state-run China Power and Pakistan army’s commercial body Frontiers Works Organisation signed an accord to construct the Dam ($5.85 billion).

 

 

This is the most complicated issue. Prior to awarding the contract, Pakistan’s Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) had always claimed the total cost of the dam to be $14 billion. After the signing ceremony for the contract, WAPDA claimed cost is sharply dropped. But even accounting for fluctuation in the value of the Pakistani rupee, around 37% decrease in total cost is not possible. The only logical explanation, therefore, is that WAPDA is downscaling the cost of the project so that they can show the public they have the required funds to complete it, which does not seem to be the case. In the budget for the fiscal year 2020–21, Pakistan has only allocated Rs61 billion (A$523 million), which only makes up 2.6% of the original estimated cost of the dam, suggesting Pakistan is still short of financial resources to build the dam, despite a loan agreed by China.

 

 

Opposition by the indigenous people of Gilgit Baltistan could potentially impede the progress of the dam, where the dam site is located. Diamer-Bhasha Dam affectees Action Committee, a group representing the people forcibly displaced by the dam construction, is demanding Rs15 billion (A$130 million) in compensation, which the government has refused to pay. There is also a dispute between the Harban tribe of Kohistan and Thor tribe of Diamer over part of the land which will be used for the dam. The residents are also protesting the destruction of historical Buddhist sculptures, inscriptions, and petroglyphs in 50 villages, which will be submerged once the dam is in use. While the government has announced a fund of Rs78 billion (A$670 million) “for the welfare of the people of Diamer-Bhasha”, local communities will find it hard to believe such a claim, given the economic plight of the country, and such protests are likely to continue.

 

 

This dam can be an ecological disaster because at the proposed site of the Diamer-Bhasha dam, there are 300 earthquakes average in a single month. And this is not the only challenge as the reservoir of the dam is to be constructed on top of the Central Asian fault line. US’s foremost design and infrastructure firms, AECOM, also cautioned against the proposed Diamer-Bhasha dam. The letter said, “If Wapda decides to proceed with this concept, the cost would be exorbitant and construction time would exceed ten years. The project risk associated with an RCC dam is extremely high due to the transportation issue and seismic profile found at the location of the project. In summation, for practical and economic reasons the RCC dam should not be recommended for the DBD project.” And if Dam construction completed, it can cause water shortage in the Ladakh area. The 200-sq km reservoir of the dam could wash away 100 kilometers of the Karakoram highway, and the villages and farms of over 35,000 people could disappear.