Why Pakistan so worried for “Doha Accord”?

Pakistan Ex. permanent representative to the UN, Maleeha Lodi has expressed deep concern over the absence of intra-Afghan talks, in an article titled “Uncertain Afghan endgame” published in Pakistan's leading English daily newspaper Dawn, on 23rd of March 2020. The concern is not only the individual concern by Maleeha Lodi, but it reflects the concerns of Pakistan at large, the country which is going to be the biggest beneficiary of this agreement. It is noteworthy that talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban were to begin on March 10, but the talks on the terms of release of some prisoners and some other issues have been postponed. Since then, the validity and existence of this agreement have started to be questioned.

What the accord?

According to this agreement, under which the US committed to withdraw up to 5,000 troops in about four and a half months and all remaining forces within 14 months, if the deal holds, is expected to lead to initiation of intra-Afghan dialogues.

Why Pakistan so worried about this agreement?

Pakistan welcomed the signing of Doha Accord between the United States and Taliban and pointed out it as a major step towards peace in Afghanistan after two decades of war and its leader hoped that various Afghan factions would avail this opportunity to reach a mutual accommodation.

It is noteworthy that Taliban was like a brainchild of Pakistan. The Taliban were born during the Mujahideen War waged by US against Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Jamia Haqqania, based in Akora Khattak, Pakistan and its chief Sami Ul Haq, is considered the cradle and father of the Taliban Movement, respectively. From the time of the inception of the Taliban, it had become a major weapon of the rulers of Pakistan so that they could maintain their supremacy in Afghanistan. And Pakistan had significant success when the Taliban seized governance in Afghanistan and established their power there. Significantly, Pakistan was the first country to recognize the government of Taliban.

If clearly stated, the advantage of Pakistan is that if the Taliban get successful to establish in Afghanistan, then it will not have to worry about the security of its western borders. On the other hand, its influence inside Afghanistan, which is almost gone, will be able to be restored. Pakistan's present concern is more than the growing American influence on Afghanistan, the growing influence of India, which is unbearable for Pakistan.

Gen McKenzie’s testimonial: Joyful for Pakistan?

There is an atmosphere of excitement in Pakistan following General McKenzie's recent statement. But what was it in the general's statement that Pakistan took an encouraging meaning. An important figure in strategic scenario, Gen Kenneth McKenzie, who heads the US Central Command (CENTCOM), and by this Gen McKenzie is responsible for Afghanistan, Iraq and the Middle East, told a Senate panel on March 12, that the American military always tried to maintain a close relationship with the Pakistani military, even when political relations between the two countries are in turmoil. The statement asserted by Pakistanis as America’s strict adherence toward the accord. But on the other hand Gen McKenzie said there were conditionalities in the Doha agreement that required the Taliban to fulfil their commitments and “we are going to have the opportunity to see what the Taliban do”. He was responding to a question from Senator Angus King, an independent from Maine, who wanted to know if there was a plan B for if the Taliban failed to abide by the Doha agreement. Gen McKenzie said the Taliban would have to significantly reduce the number of attacks they were carrying out because the Doha accord required them to do so.

Gen McKenzie confirmed to media reports that US special operators would serve as the main security force to combat militants when foreign troops start leaving Afghanistan. The Doha deal calls for all American troops to leave within 14 months. He explained that the Pentagon’s plan to use special operators to combat terrorist groups was not new as that’s how the US military has been “doing business for a while now in Afghanistan”. US special operators have served as a hammer calling in strikes against Taliban and ISIS militants for several years now while military advisers train Afghan forces. Gen McKenzie said the United States would soon reduce its troop presence in Afghanistan to 8,600 but further reductions would require major progress in intra-Afghan talks and integration between the Taliban and Afghan army. In another hearing this week, Gen McKenzie said he would advise not reducing the US footprint below 8,600 if the peace progress stalled or Afghan forces were incapable of defending themselves.

US obligations!

The political conditions of America most responsible for this agreement are America's presidential elections are going to be held and Donald Trump will be a candidate once again. In such a situation, the issue of home coming to its soldiers in the war affected areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan has taken an important place in American politics. In such a situation, they are taking such steps to woo their voters. But on a different theater US response is totally different. On 28th January US signed the Deal of the Century with Israel which marks the handing over of the areas of Palestine under the administration of Arabs including Jerusalem to the Israel. So there is a need to understand Americas internal political obligations.

This agreement, apart from the government of Afghanistan, has been done only between the Taliban and the US government. America's special envoy, Jalmay Khalilzad, has negotiated with Taliban leaders to reach this conclusion. But there is a big drawback of not taking representatives of the Afghan government. This hasty settlement by the US could push the region into a period of prolonged tension, and Pakistan's dominance in the region poses the greatest threat to ongoing peace. It is assumed by the political analysts that the Doha Accord is a victory of the Taliban and righteous and fundamentalist forces.