Steady growing temperatures pose a serious risk to Pakistan’s efforts for achieving sustainable food security and meet food consumption needs of the spiking population, according to studies based on various projections of climate change impacts on the country’s agriculture and water resources.
Studies carried out by the Global Change Impact Study Centre (GCISC), a Ministry’s research wing, pointed out that average temperature over Pakistan would increase in the coming decades at a pace faster than that of the average global temperature increase. “The temperature rise in Pakistan may exceed by about one degree Celsius by the end of this century,” Mr. Saleem cautioned quoting the GCISC studies.
Based on crop simulation models of the GCISC show that wheat crop yield will be reduced by 3.4 to 12.5 percent in semi-arid irrigated areas including Faisalabad, Sheikhupura and 3.8 to 14.5 percent in arid areas including Hyderabad, Badin, Bahawalpur and Multan. Around 16 percent decline in overall wheat producity in rain-dependent areas has been forecast in various areas of the Potohar region including Chakwal district under different climate change senarios towards the end of ongoing century.
The rice crop yields are likely to register fall by 12 to 22 percent in almost all rice growing areas of the country by end of this century because of the rising global temperatures,
The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) has called on South Asian governments to revise the current climate adaptation policies across the region in response to the effects of climate change.
CIMMYT, in a new report, “Climate variability and yield risk in South Asia’s rice – wheat systems: emerging evidence from Pakistan” highlighted the important risks to farmers’ yields in Pakistan due to climate change.
Results confirm the risks of extreme weather - particularly temperature - and climatic variability on rice and wheat yields in Pakistan, using data collected under on-farm circumstances, while also accounting for farmers’ variable agronomic management practices.