Pakistan is currently prioritizing the development and deployment of short-range missile systems armed with low-yield nuclear warheads. This risky plan, which is part of an effort to deter conventional attacks from India, could lower the threshold for nuclear weapons use in South Asia. At the same time, Islamabad continues to develop and deploy longer-range ballistic missiles. The Shaheen-III, which at a range of 2,750 km is Pakistan's longest-range missile to date, was tested for the first time in 2015. The Shaheen-III can reach Indian-controlled islands in the Bay of Bengal, in addition to all of mainland India. Pakistan continues to test other land-based missiles, such as the Shaheen-II, Ghaznavi, and Babur.
Besides land-based systems, Pakistan is also developing a nuclear-capable air launched cruise missile, the Ra'ad, and is in the early stages of developing a sea-based deterrent.
The National Development Complex is the main organization overseeing work on missiles, with a number of other entities involved as well. Pakistan appears to have made great strides in its ability to develop and produce missiles domestically. However, it remains reliant to a considerable extent on foreign sources for related equipment and materials.
Land-based Ballistic Missiles
Nasr: In an effort to guard against India's overwhelming advantage in conventional forces, Pakistan is developing tactical, nuclear-capable systems, such as the Nasr (Hatf-IX) short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). It was first tested in April 2011. Its most recent test, in September 2014, was done in salvo mode using a multi-tube launch vehicle (MLV). The road-mobile, solid-fueled Nasr has a range of 60 km and is equipped with "fire and forget" capabilities. Its main mission is understood to be to deter against a conventional attack by India. If it is deployed in the battlefield or along the Indo-Pakistani border during a crisis, it could increase the risk of a nuclear exchange between the two countries.
Shaheen: Pakistan continues to enhance its series of Shaheen solid-fueled ballistic missiles. By April 2013, Pakistan had extended the range of the Shaheen-1 (Hatf-IV) from 750 km to 900 km. In April 2012 and December 2015, a test of the Shaheen-1A was conducted, an improved version of the Shaheen-1 with a range of 900 km and a reported payload capacity of 700-1,000 kg.
The Shaheen-II (Hatf-VI), which was reportedly first tested in 2004, was first used by the Army in a training exercise in 2008. It was last tested in November 2014. This two-stage solid-fueled missile has a 2,000 km range and reportedly has a payload capacity of 1,000-1,100 kg.
In March 2015, Pakistan conducted the first known test launch of the Shaheen-III ballistic missile. It was tested again in December 2015. This nuclear-capable missile has a range of 2,750 km. According to Lieutenant General (Retired) Khalid Kidwai, the former head of Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division, the Shaheen-III is able to bring the Indian-controlled Nicobar and Andaman Islands in the Bay of Bengal, where Pakistan fears India may build "strategic bases," within range of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
Ghaznavi: The first batch of Ghaznavi (Hatf III) ballistic missiles were reportedly inducted into the Strategic Forces Command in 2004. The nuclear-capable Ghaznavi is a solid-fueled missile with a range of 290 km and a reported payload capacity of 800 kg.
Ghauri: The Pakistan military continues to conduct training launches of the liquid-fueled Ghauri (Hatf V) ballistic missile, which has already entered service. The nuclear-capable missile, which has a range of 1,300 km and a reported payload capacity of 700 kg, was tested again in April 2015.
Cruise missiles
Babur: In October 2011 and September 2012, Pakistan conducted tests of the Babur cruise missile (Hatf-VII), which Islamabad describes as a nuclear-capable missile with a 700 km range. It is fired from a multi-tube launch vehicle (MLV), and has a reported payload capacity of 300 kg.
Ra'ad: The Ra'ad Air-Launched Cruise Missile (Hatf-VIII) was last tested in January 2016. The Pakistani government claims that the missile can carry nuclear warheads to a range of over 350 km. It has a reported payload capacity of 450 kg.
Sea-based Missiles
Pakistan hopes to develop a sea-based nuclear arsenal. In May 2012, Islamabad inaugurated the headquarters of the Naval Strategic Force Command, which was tasked with ensuring Pakistan's "second strike capability" and "strengthen[ing] Pakistan's policy of Credible Minimum Deterrence." Such capability may include sea-launched versions of the Babur and Ra'ad cruise missiles, which might be carried on its diesel-powered submarines or even on surface warships.