Census in Pakistan: What do the figures says?

Census is a herculean task for governments in Indian subcontinent because of their immense population and complex ethno-socio structure. Pakistan has shown a bizarre perspective of its own. Census is much (and badly) awaited not only by political parties (due to delimitation related issues), but Social welfare and right organisations and also the common people of Pakistan. And finally provisional census data presented to the Council of Common Interest (CCI) on 25^th August.

According to the provisional census data, Pakistan's population has surged to 207.77 million, having experienced a 57 per cent increase since the last census in 1998. The annual growth rate has been recorded at 2.4 per cent over a time period of 1998 to 2017. It reveals acceleration in the population growth rate of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata), even as growth in Punjab and Sindh has slowed compared to previous results.

An increase in the urban-rural ratio has been observed in all administrative units except Islamabad, which nonetheless remains the second most urbanised unit of the country. Over 52pc of Sindh's residents live in urban areas, which have surpassed the capital territory as the most urbanised territory of Pakistan. Close to 36.4pc of Pakistanis live in urban areas, the provisional results reveal. Balochistan, the least urbanised of Pakistan's provinces, has experienced the fastest average annual growth rate since 1998 of 3.37pc. Punjab's average annual growth rate remained the slowest at 2.13pc, slightly below the national average of 2.4pc.

Important takeaways from the census include an overall increase in the population from the 1998 census by 57% and from the 1981 census by 146.6%. Punjab's population is the highest at 110 million while Sindh follows next with 47 million, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa third with 30 million, Balochistan fourth at 12 million. FATA has a population of roughly 5 million people while the Islamabad Capital Territory has a population of 2 million.

Important figures of Census of Pakistan

According to the census, about 32 million households are present in the country with the number of males recorded at 106 million, females at 101 million and the transgender population at 10,418. Unsurprisingly, Punjab was the most densely populated province with 110 million people, followed by Sindh with 47 million, KP with 30 million, Balochistan with 12 million, FATA with 5 million and Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) with 2 million.

The highest average annual growth rate from 1998 to 2017 was recorded in rural areas of Islamabad Capital Territory at 6.95pc. The lowest average annual growth rate was recorded in the rural population of Punjab at 1.81pc.

The overall sex ratio was recorded at 105.07; 103.72 in rural areas, 107.47 in urban areas. The lowest sex ratio was recorded in KP, with the number being 101.6 in rural KP and 107.83 in urban KP. The highest sex ratio was present at ICT at 111.04; 108.41 at rural areas, and an alarming 113.68 in urban areas.

The transgender population in the country was recorded at 10,418. Interestingly, not a single individual who identified with the transgender community was recorded in urban FATA. 

The Provisional summary results show an overall increase in population by 57pc over the year 1998, while the population increased by 146.6pc since 1981-census.  However, there has been a decline in the population growth rate at the national level and in Punjab and Sindh Provinces, while an increase has been observed in the provinces of KP, Balochistan and FATA.

As per the provisional results, the urban population shows a growing trend with 36.38pc of the population living in urban areas.  On the other hand, a significant decrease has been observed in the percentage of urban population in ICT which gone down from 65.72pc to 50.58pc, indicating that growth occurred in the rural areas of Islamabad. Amongst the provinces, Sindh is the most urbanised province, where 52.02pc population lives in urban areas. 

Census in Pakistan

The first census in Pakistan was conducted in 1951, followed by second in 1961, third in 1972, instead of 1971 due to political turmoil, and the fourth in 1981. The fifth census, which was due in 1991, was held in March 1998. The army assisted the authorities in conducting the last census 19 years ago. Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world, had not held a census since 1998 due to years of bickering between politicians.

What census meant for Pakistan?

The count could redraw the political map as the country gears up for a national election next year — a prospect that has risen fears over power bases and federal funding.

This is notable that at the time census was launched, it was stated that the people who will provide wrong information to the enumerators will face six-month jail term and Rs. 50,000 fine over the breach of the census rules. Each enumerator was given the map of his or her area for the census. The houses having more than one family were counted on the basis of separate kitchens.

Smell a rat!!!

Opposition has serious apprehensions about it and they put some logical and reasonable points.

First, the Karachi’s population was estimated at 9.8 million in 1998. In 2017, nineteen years later, it is said to have grown to 14.9 million, or an average annual growth rate of 2.2 percent. In effect, this means that while population in the country as a whole grew at 2.4 percent, the growth rate of its largest city and commercial hub remained lower than the average for the country as a whole. Lahore, in contrast, is said to have been growing at just over 4 percent a year, well above the national growth rate, and has effectively doubled in size since the last census. 

Punjab’s growth rate is said to have slackened to 2.1 percent, but in a remarkable twist, its rural population is said to have grown at just 1.8 percent per annum on average., compared to an urban growth rate of 2.7 percent In 1998 also, the rural population growth rate in the province was lower than the urban, signifying a degree of out-migration from rural areas into cities, but this census shows that that trend has intensified.

But what in the world is going on in Baluchistan? In 1998, the population is said to have been growing at 2.5 percent per annum (1.9 percent in rural areas). In 2017, this has increased to 3.4 percent (3.3 percent in rural areas). This is clearly unprecedented, and defies common sense. Has infant mortality and life expectancy in the province improved drastically? If not, which is probably the case, than the only thing that explains the dramatic increase in the population is that Afghan refugees are finally being counted as residents. 

KP represents a similar dilemma though the annual average growth rate of population has not changed since 1998 — the fact that it has not changed in spite of out-migration shows that groups that were not previously being counted, now are.

Multiple community-based organisations representing transgender community of the country have rejected census results that noted the community which is also known as the “third gender” comprises 10,418 persons which is 0.005% of the total population 207.77 million.

Opposition’s Point

Opposition parties voiced serious concerns over the preliminary results of the national census, questioning the authenticity of the figures released by the statistics division. In a statement issued on August 26, the PPP leader demanded that the data collected by the statistics division and the Pakistan Army should be compared to get a true picture.

Veteran PPP leader Nawab Yusuf Talpur accused the authorities of releasing the wrong figures under a preconceived plan. He alleged that the results had been doctored, adding that the population of Sindh had been deliberately reduced by at least 10 million, while the population of Punjab was overestimated by 10 million. He said that giving 50pc per cent representation to Punjab in the reconstituted Council of Common Interests (CCI) was part of the same conspiracy.

Describing the preliminary results of the census as an attempt to usurp the rights of Sindh, he called on his party to convene a provincial multiparty conference to discuss the matter.

Awami National Party (ANP) leader Bushra Gohar also expressed her dissatisfaction with the census results. “There were nearly 2 million registered IDPs from North Waziristan alone. How can Fata’s population be just 5 million? Fudged figures?” she tweeted on August 26.

MQM leader Dr Farooq Sattar had also rejected the results and termed them as "rigged". He alleged that the population figure for Karachi had been marked down as "it cannot be less than 30 million".

Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) MNA Murad Saeed also appeared thrown off by the provisional results announced. Taking to Twitter to voice his concerns, he said that according to the census results, there had been a 57pc increase in the population since 1998. “For policy formulation, we were working with population growth projections of 2.05pc, census revealed it is 2.4pc,” he tweeted.

In a related development, the Senate Finance Committee will meet on Aug 29 for a detailed briefing on the preliminary results of census from the statistics division.

Government in safety mode!

Chief Census Commissioner Asif Bajwa on August 29 turned down the objections raised by political parties over the recent census results, claiming that the verification of "every individual" was ensured. Bajwa also informed the committee that over seas Pakistanis had not been included in the census. He said that final census report will be prepared by April 2018. The cost of the census amounted to Rs17billion. The committee has demanded a post-census survey in 1 per cent out of the 168,943 blocks. The blocks to be surveyed will be determined by provincial governments, it said.

Census has raised more questions than it has answered. So it is obvious that its authenticity must be questioned.  Credibility of government and Army is also under suspicion. And this is common belief in Pakistan now days that the process was flawed and the final numbers a result of a conspiracy which aims to give more power to the province of Punjab while ignoring the rest. This is a well known fact worldwide that Pakistan’s Army as well as government ran by Punjab singlehandedly.