Kulsoom Nawaz’s victory by narrower margins : An analysis

Former first lady Begum Kulsoom Nawaz wins the election for NA-120 on September 17 by defeating Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's (PTI) Dr Yasmin Rashid with a clear margin of 14,188 votes.

Although Begum Kulsoom of the PML-N defeated Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf’s (PTI) Dr Yasmin Rashid, the margin of victory came to around 14,000 in the Sept 17 by-poll from over 39,000 votes back in the 2013 general elections.

Unusual for a by-poll, there were 43 players in the contest for the seat that fell vacant after the disqualification of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

The PPP seems to have gotten even less votes than it did in NA-120 during the 2013 election. Less than fifteen hundred was what Faisal Mir could muster in an election which no one expected him to win. But less than 1,500 comes out to about one percent of the total voter turnout.

The margin of the victory of Kulsoom Nawaz (48.6 percent of the vote cast) over the PTI’s Dr Yasmeen Rashid (37.1 percent) is eleven percent of vote cast, 11.9 percent less than Nawaz Sharif’s lead of 26.2 percent in the last elections. Running an exceptionally aggressive door-to-door campaign, Dr Yasmeen Rashid improved her vote tally by 2.6 percent. That shows a minor swing in the PTI’s favour, with the support of the Shia Majlis-e-Wahdatul Muslimeen, as compared to the minus-swing against the PML-N or defection of almost 12 percent of its traditional right-wing religious voters.

The mystery is rooted in the division within the broadest coalition of conservative forces. The votes the two ‘independent’ candidates got (12,952) on behalf of two un-registered extremist right-wing parties – banned Lashkar-e-Taiba’s Milli Muslim League with its ‘Hero’ Hafiz Saeed’s portrait on its posters (5,822 votes) and Labbaik Ya Rasul Allah party with ‘Shaheed’ Mumtaz Qadri’s banners (7,130 votes) – are almost equal to the minus-swing.

Important factors in Punjab politics have always been birdari or cast. The non-party based elections of 1985 had badly damaged the ideological politics, whether of right or left. On the one hand, it made feudal, Sardar culture strong but also divided society on ethnic and sectarian lines.

The failure of political parties to introduce the culture of democracy in themselves also encouraged politics of electables. In the next 10 to 15 years, mainstream political parties would be struggling to find leaders to lead and in the process will give space to undemocratic forces.