Pakistan’s water shortage: potential threat to Rabi crops

Pakistan is estimated to suffer a rare 36 per cent water shortage in the ongoing Rabi season, amid fewer rainfalls and flows in two contributing rivers – Jhelum and Kabul – plunging to a historic low, compelling the authorities to adopt tight irrigation patterns that minimise crop losses.

Indus River System Authority (Irsa) spokesman, said the meeting noted the total river flows in October at 4 million acre feet (MAF) against previous estimates of 4.9MAF, showing a 17pc gap.

The water regulator and the provinces had jointly made adjustments during the month to keep outflows 16pc lower that water distribution plan approved on September 29 and ensured 7.3MAF supplies to provinces to help mature Kharif crops. He said that Sindh had already started wheat sowing while Punjab would follow this week. Total river flows were recorded at 46,000 cusecs on November 1 which was 20pc lower than 50-year historic averages of Kabul and Indus and almost 94-year averages in case of Jhelum and Chenab.

Likewise, the country’s reservoirs had a total storage of about 5.9MAF as of now which was 30pc lower than historic average.

The total water availability for the remaining part of the season was estimated at 18.3MAF, including 12.4 MAF of river flows and stocks in reservoirs at 5.9MAF. After accounting for 1.7MAF of conveyance losses, the net divisible water availability was put at 16.6MAF. As such, the total availability for the entire season (including October) was estimated at 23.94MAF instead of 29.5MAF. The meeting decided to keep KP (0.7MAF) and Balochistan (1.2MAF) unaffected by the shortage because of their infrastructure limitations and be given a total of 1.9MAF of water.

The entire shortage was then applied to Sindh and Punjab, who would now get a total of 22.03MAF during the entire season. As a consequence of this 36pc shortage, Sindh’s share was curtailed to 9.5MAF, instead of 11.9MAF, as worked out earlier on the basis of 29.5MAF availability estimates. Likewise, Punjab’s water share was also brought down to 12.6MAF against the previous allocation of 15.73MAF. Country used to carryover 10.5MAF stocks in reservoirs in Rabi season compared to just 8.5MAF this season, showing a gap of 2MAF.

IRSA had facilitated provinces in maturing Kharif crops with lenient discharges and that too had a contribution to overall availability for Rabi.